The study was conducted by Synapse Energy Economics, Mondre Energy and Aspen Technologies, which characterized it as an independent analysis of load projections and resource adequacy, according to ZeroHedge [1]. The models, covering the years 2027 through 2030, indicate that PJM's resource adequacy target would not be met under both a reference scenario and a high-load, low-supply scenario, the report stated [1].
Only a scenario in which no new data centers are added would allow the region to meet PJM's target LOLE of 0.1, the report said [1]. PJM's standard is designed to limit potential electricity shortages to approximately one event every 10 years, according to a PUC release about the report [1].
Report Projects Reliability Gap
In the study's reference scenario, which relies on PJM's 2026 load forecast, the modeled 2030 LOLE is 0.59, or nearly six times worse than the PJM planning criterion, the study stated [1]. A loss-of-load expectation of 0.59 indicates that the grid would be expected to experience a loss-of-load event roughly once every 1.7 years, compared to the target of once every 10 years.
In a worst-case future of higher-than-expected load additions and constrained resource deployment, the modeled LOLE is 13.20, which is over 100 times worse than the criterion, indicating more than 13 days with loss-of-load events per year, according to the report [1]. "As in the Reference scenario, these reliability issues are largely due to surging data center additions," the study said [1].
The report's findings align with prior warnings from PJM and other grid operators. In July 2025, PJM's capacity auction procured 149,182 megawatts (MW) of supply, which was still 6.8 gigawatts (GW) below the level required to meet the one-event-in-10-year reliability standard, marking the third consecutive year the grid operator failed to reach its reliability requirement, according to NaturalNews.com [2].
Officials Cite Need for Action
PUC Chairman Steve DeFrank said in a statement: "This analysis sends a clear warning: electricity demand and supply are moving out of balance, and the status quo is not sustainable. We need urgent action at PJM and a broader Pennsylvania energy strategy that makes sure our supply of electricity keeps pace with demand" [1].
Jeff Shields, PJM's senior manager of external communications, told CBS affiliate WJAC that new data center loads are growing faster than supply. Shields said: "PJM has taken a number of actions to both increase electricity supply and manage new demand in line with the Ratepayer Protection Pledge taken by data center developers to shield residential customers and other ratepayers from bearing reliability risks or cost increases associated with data center development" [1].
Those actions include an emergency plan to secure 15 GW of new electricity generation in response to soaring power demand from artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, according to NaturalNews.com [3]. The grid operator has warned of a potential 60-GW shortfall within a decade, risking reliability for 65 million people [3].
Pennsylvania Policy and Supply Outlook
The reference scenario anticipates Pennsylvania remaining a net energy exporter, but exports decrease from about 91 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025 to about 69 TWh by 2035 and 38 TWh by 2040, the report said [1]. In the high-load, low-supply scenario, Pennsylvania becomes a net importer of five TWh by 2040, according to the report [1]. "Because this scenario has a large amount of unmet load in 2031 and later years, it is likely that some amount of this 2035 and 2040 load will be unmet, as there will not be enough regional generation to meet PJM-wide load requirements," the report stated [1].
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro issued an executive order offering preferential permitting to data center projects with peak demand over 25 MW if they commit to requirements including sourcing electricity from new power supplies, officials said [1]. The PUC voted unanimously to approve motions directing staff to propose updates to emergency curtailment rules and organize a technical conference on cost allocation for data centers, the report noted [1].
The policy responses come as PJM has faced multiple grid emergencies. In July 2026, PJM declared a level 2 grid emergency as a heat dome pushed electricity demand toward critically high levels, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued emergency orders for PJM to dispatch specified units and use backup generation to prevent rolling blackouts, according to ZeroHedge and NaturalNews.com [4][5].
Conclusion
The report notes that PJM and the Energy Department have implemented initiatives including interconnection queue reform and reliability backstop procurement, and are discussing load forecasting improvements, according to the study [1]. The DOE has committed to keeping some coal-fired power plants online beyond retirement dates to maintain regional supply, the report said [1].
Under the study's models, only the no-new-data-centers scenario meets PJM's LOLE target, while both the reference and high-load, low-supply scenarios fall short. The findings underscore the tension between the rapid expansion of AI data centers and the reliability of the electric grid. The report does not make policy recommendations but provides projections that state officials have described as requiring urgent action [1].
References
- ZeroHedge. "Largest US Power Grid Faces Dire Crisis By 2030 If Data Center Load Growth Continues". September 15, 2026.
- NaturalNews.com. "PJM Auction Falls 6.8 Gigawatts Short of Reliability Target Amid Data Center Demand Surge". July 17, 2026.
- NaturalNews.com. "PJM grid scrambles for 15 GW of power as AI data centers threaten reliability". April 13, 2026.
- ZeroHedge. "Heat Dome Threatens America's 250th Birthday As Power Grid Crisis Continues". July 4, 2026.
- NaturalNews.com. "Trump Administration Issues Another Emergency Grid Order as Heat Wave Strains U.S. Power System". July 24, 2026.
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