Key points:
- Al-Qaeda's Sahel branch, JNIM, has effectively besieged Mali's capital, Bamako, controlling critical supply routes for fuel and food.
- Towns across Mali are being forced to negotiate survival pacts, adopting Sharia law and paying jizyah (protection taxes) to terrorist officials.
- The military juntas governing Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger expelled French assistance and turned to Russian mercenaries, who have failed to contain the threat.
- Jihadist ranks are swelled by local ethnic Tuareg seeking independence, Fulani tribesmen, and criminal networks profiting from kidnappings and gold theft.
- The threat is spreading beyond the Sahel to coastal nations like Togo and Benin, signaling a potential continent-wide crisis.
JNIM methodically suffocating landlocked West African towns
To understand the gravity of Bamako's isolation, one must look at the tactics. The coalition known as Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) is not merely launching sporadic attacks. It is executing a methodical strategy of economic and social suffocation. By dominating the rural regions and severing the capital’s connections to the outside world, they create a pressure cooker. This forces desperate local towns, abandoned by a weak central authority, to barter their freedom for survival. These communities are not embracing extremist ideology; they are signing contracts under duress, agreeing to live under harsh Islamic law and funnel their scarce resources to terrorist coffers as a ransom for their lives. This is the grim reality of modern jihadist conquest, where sovereignty is eroded not in a single battle but through a thousand cuts to infrastructure, commerce, and hope.
Failed alliances and foreign miscalculations
The response from the region’s governments has compounded the disaster. The military regimes in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, lacking popular legitimacy, made a fateful gamble. They expelled French counter-terrorism forces, viewing them through a lens of colonial resentment, and instead hired the Wagner Group and its successors from Russia. This exchange has proven to be a devastating folly. Russian mercenaries, far from being a decisive force, have suffered significant defeats, such as the July 2024 ambush by Tuareg rebels allied with the jihadists. The promise of security has evaporated, leaving the juntas weaker and the terrorist groups stronger. This pivot reveals a tragic pattern where the pursuit of political power by unelected leaders opens the door for far more dangerous actors to fill the security vacuum. The so-called "Alliance of Sahel States" now stands as an alliance of fragility, propped up by ineffective foreign guns for hire.
The path forward appears perilously narrow. The report from Gatestone Institute suggests that without urgent and effective Western military intervention, which poses immense logistical challenges, the juntas may seek a catastrophic accommodation with the very terrorists they are supposed to fight. A power-sharing deal with Al-Qaeda or Islamic State proxies would be the final surrender, permanently de-legitimizing any pretense of government and cementing terrorist control. The warning that a full terrorist takeover could occur by 2026 is not alarmist; it is a projection based on the current, unchecked trajectory. The people of the Sahel are caught between the tyranny of unaccountable juntas and the brutal theocracy of jihadist rule, a choice between two oppressors engineered by failed policies and a global community that has chosen to look away.
Source include:
Please contact us for more information.
