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"The fact that 2008 is forecast to be cooler than any of the last seven years does not mean that global warming has gone away," said Phil Jones, the director of climate research at UEA. 2008 will have a particularly stronger La Niña than recent years. La Niña and El Niño have a significant impact on global temperatures. El Niño's effect lowers the global temperature average where as La Niña will bring cold waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean to the surface, which will cool large regions of ocean and land, dropping the average global temperature. The trend of warming over the years is evident by comparing 2008's predicted average temperature with that of 2000, which had a La Niña of very similar strength. 2000 was 0.24°C (.43°F) above the 1961-1990 period. 2008 will be 0.37°C (.67°F) above that time period. Therefore, 2008 will be 0.13°C (.23°F) above 2000. It's important to realize that the process of global warming does not necessarily make each year warmer than the year preceding. Decade to decade comparison is a more accurate method of measurement than year to year because cyclical influences, such as the La Niña of 2008, can be particularly strong one year then weak the next. For example, the warmest year on record is 1998, when an extremely strong El Niño brought the global temperature to 0.52°C (32.9°F) above the 1961-1990 period. In addition to El Niño and La Niña, the forecast uses data from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the cooling effects of industrial aerosol particles, solar influences and natural ocean changes. The Met Office's record of global temperature prediction is quite accurate. Since it began in 2000, the forecasts of the Met Office have had an average error of just 0.07°C . The 11 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 13 years. The Met Office has stated that this global warming is almost certainly man-made. About the authorTom Mosakowski, B.S. Biochemistry. He can be contacted at TomMosakowski@gmail.comRelated CounterThink Cartoons:
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