Originally published February 18 2008
2008 Will Be Among the Ten Hottest Years on Record
by Tom Mosakowski
(NaturalNews) Despite being slightly cooler than previous years, 2008 will be one of the top 10 hottest years since record keeping of average global temperatures began in 1850. British forecasters at the Met Office, the UK's top climate change research facility (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/) , along with the University of East Anglia (UEA) at (http://www1.uea.ac.uk/cm/Home) , predict the average global temperature for 2008 will be 0.37�C (.67�F) higher than the 1961-1990 average of 14.0�C (57.2�F) . The last seven years (2001-2007) have been on average 0.44�C (.79�F) higher than 1961-1990 and 0.21�C (.38�F) higher than 1991-2000. This shows a trend of warming during the last few decades.
"The fact that 2008 is forecast to be cooler than any of the last seven years does not mean that global warming has gone away," said Phil Jones, the director of climate research at UEA.
2008 will have a particularly stronger La Ni�a than recent years. La Ni�a and El Ni�o have a significant impact on global temperatures. El Ni�o's effect lowers the global temperature average where as La Ni�a will bring cold waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean to the surface, which will cool large regions of ocean and land, dropping the average global temperature.
The trend of warming over the years is evident by comparing 2008's predicted average temperature with that of 2000, which had a La Ni�a of very similar strength. 2000 was 0.24�C (.43�F) above the 1961-1990 period. 2008 will be 0.37�C (.67�F) above that time period. Therefore, 2008 will be 0.13�C (.23�F) above 2000.
It's important to realize that the process of global warming does not necessarily make each year warmer than the year preceding. Decade to decade comparison is a more accurate method of measurement than year to year because cyclical influences, such as the La Ni�a of 2008, can be particularly strong one year then weak the next. For example, the warmest year on record is 1998, when an extremely strong El Ni�o brought the global temperature to 0.52�C (32.9�F) above the 1961-1990 period.
In addition to El Ni�o and La Ni�a, the forecast uses data from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, the cooling effects of industrial aerosol particles, solar influences and natural ocean changes.
The Met Office's record of global temperature prediction is quite accurate. Since it began in 2000, the forecasts of the Met Office have had an average error of just 0.07�C .
The 11 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 13 years. The Met Office has stated that this global warming is almost certainly man-made.
About the author
Tom Mosakowski, B.S. Biochemistry.
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