Summary
If the avian flu now spreading through Asia were to mutate into a virulent form of the disease that spread easily between humans, it could spread across the globe within a month and kill upwards of 50 million people, according to the World Health Organization. Best-case scenarios show a projected death toll of at least 2 million, with many millions more sick enough to require medical health. The WHO is urging preparedness, which could help prevent the spread of the virus.
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http://www.thestar.co.za/index.php?fSectionId=129&fArticleId=2438571
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Scientists and doctors the world over are bracing themselves for a possible flu outbreak which could quickly kill millions.
"At the moment this is the theoretical risk, but there are warning signs that this outbreak could occur," he says.
Since mid-December 2003, a growing number of Asian countries have reported outbreaks of the highly pathogenic avian influenza in chickens and ducks.
Infections in several species of wild birds and in pigs have also been reported.
Scientists now fear that this avian influenza, which has infected humans in South East Asia, could mutate to allow the virus to be transmitted from human to human.
Scientists know that avian and human influenza viruses can exchange genes when a person is simultaneously infected with viruses from both species.
If the new virus contains enough human genes, transmission directly from one person to another (instead of from birds to humans) could occur.
This was the situation during the great influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, when a completely new virus sub-type emerged and spread around the globe in less than six months.
Professor Barry Schoub, the director of the National Institute of Communicable Diseases, says there have been two cases in Thailand where the avian flu virus was transferred between humans.
If the avian flu mutates we will experience a pandemic."
But Schoub says South Africans are not immediately at risk as avian flu has not been detected in this country.
"If pandemics do come in regular cycles, then it appears we are due for one now," he explains.
Experts at the World Health Organisation (WHO) estimate that if there is a
pandemic it could kill from 2-million to more than 50-million people across the globe.
Schoub says South Africa is examining its current preparedness plans and is part of the WHO programme.
About the author: Mike Adams is a natural health author and award-winning journalist with a mission to teach personal and planetary health to the public He is a prolific writer and has published thousands of articles, interviews, reports and consumer guides, and he has created several downloadable courses on survival and preparedness, including his widely-downloaded course on personal safety and self-defense. Adams is a trusted, independent journalist who receives no money or promotional fees whatsoever to write about other companies' products. In 2010, Adams launched TV.NaturalNews.com, a natural health video site featuring videos on holistic health and green living. He also founded an environmentally-friendly online retailer called BetterLifeGoods.com that uses retail profits to help support consumer advocacy programs. He's also a veteran of the software technology industry, having founded a personalized mass email software product used to deliver email newsletters to subscribers. Adams also serves as the executive director of the Consumer Wellness Center, a non-profit consumer protection group, and regularly pursues cycling, nature photography, Capoeira and Pilates. Known on the 'net as 'the Health Ranger,' Adams shares his ethics, mission statements and personal health statistics at www.HealthRanger.org
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Wednesday, March 16, 2005
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