- Core inflation fell to its lowest annual rate in nearly three years.
- Prices dropped in 71 categories from December to January.
- Essential food items like eggs and gasoline saw significant price declines.
- Goods prices are now only up one percent over the past year.
- Economists warn it is premature to declare victory over inflation.
A surprising shift is unfolding in the American economy, and it's one that brings a measure of relief to household budgets after years of inflationary pressure. New federal data for January reveals a broad-based decline in prices across dozens of everyday goods and services, helping to push core inflation to its lowest annual rate in nearly three years. This cooling trend offers tangible evidence that the cost-of-living crisis may finally be easing its grip, although significant challenges remain.
According to the latest Consumer Price Index report, prices fell in 71 distinct categories from December to January on a seasonally adjusted basis. Furthermore, 47 items are now cheaper than they were one year ago. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose just 2.5 percent over the past year. This marks the lowest annual core inflation rate since March 2021, a period just before the historic inflationary spike that defined the early 2020s.
The breadth of the declines is noteworthy, spanning from the grocery aisle to the gas pump. Essential food items saw significant drops. Egg prices fell 7.0 percent in January and are now down a staggering 34.2 percent from a year ago. Lettuce dropped 2.8 percent, pork chops fell 4.1 percent, and butter declined 2.1 percent. Over the past year, butter is down 5.0 percent and tomatoes have fallen 2.4 percent.
Energy and goods see relief
Energy costs provided considerable relief for family budgets. Fuel oil prices dropped 5.7 percent for the month, while unleaded regular gasoline fell 3.4 percent. Over the past year, regular gasoline is down 8.0 percent. These declines translated into lower costs for other categories, including transportation.
The data also shows price moderation for big-ticket items and everyday goods. Used car and truck prices fell 1.8 percent in January and are down 2.0 percent annually. Televisions dropped 1.8 percent for the month, while major appliances and sporting goods each declined 0.7 percent. Even apparel categories saw decreases, with men’s suits and outerwear falling 3.3 percent.
Services contribute to cooling
The cooling trend extended into the services sector, a key area policymakers have watched closely. Health insurance costs fell 1.2 percent in January, while lodging away from home, including hotels and motels, dropped 1.2 percent. Car and truck rental prices also declined 1.2 percent.
The overall picture is one of widespread easing. Goods prices overall declined 0.1 percent month-over-month and are up just one percent over the past 12 months. Excluding food, goods prices are actually down over the year. This represents a dramatic shift from the post-pandemic environment where supply chain disruptions and excessive stimulus fueled relentless price hikes.
Economists point to several factors behind the improvement. Tumbling gas prices, a continued slowdown in housing-related costs, and more moderate food price increases all contributed. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, called the report "great news on inflation." She stated, "Inflation fell to the lowest level since May and key items such as food, gas and rent are cooling off. This will provide much needed relief for middle class and moderate-income families."
However, the report contained mixed signals. The core CPI index accelerated slightly on a monthly basis, rising 0.3 percent in January compared to 0.2 percent in December. Some discretionary services saw sharp increases, with airfares jumping 6.5 percent, their steepest gain in nearly four years. Economists caution that the data may still be affected by disruptions from last fall's federal shutdown, and underlying pressures in some sectors persist.
Joe Brusuelas, RSM US chief economist, offered a measured take. "While mild topline inflation is encouraging, it would be premature to declare victory on inflation," he wrote, noting "sustained increase in tariff-sensitive goods."
For the Federal Reserve, the report supports a patient approach to interest rate policy. The combination of cooling inflation and a still-resilient labor market reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts. The focus now shifts to whether this disinflationary trend can be sustained, bringing prices closer to the Fed's 2 percent target without jeopardizing economic growth.
The January data provides a clear snapshot of an economy in transition. After a long period where prices seemed to move in only one direction, consumers are finally seeing meaningful retreats in key categories. This progress offers a financial breather, but the journey back to true price stability is not yet complete. The coming months will test whether this cooling is a lasting trend or merely a temporary pause in a longer battle for economic equilibrium.
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