The full research paper is available at this link (PDF).
If you don't want to read the full PDF, a short summary of the research is available here.
The findings are crucial for understanding how nations must respond to the coronavirus pandemic because they provide a roadmap for where we are right now in terms of penetration of the virus across the populations of the nations studied. Many "pandemic denialists" have, over the last month, claimed that the virus has already infected the vast majority of the populations across the USA and European nations, claiming the lockdowns should be ended with no additional measures needed because, they claim, "herd immunity" has already been achieved.
We now know that interpretation of this pandemic is in error. In the USA, Germany, Denmark and even the UK, the coronavirus infections have only just begun.
The research finds that Spain already has around 15% of its population infected while Italy has just under 10% infected. Those are the high numbers. All the other nations are significantly lower, and Germany has just 0.72% of its population infected so far, which is one reason why hospitalizations and deaths in Germany have been so low. (The real calculated range for Germany, with a 95% certainty range, is 0.28% - 1.8%.)
Table 1 from the research:
The Germany scenario is important for all Americans to grasp because Germany's numbers most closely match what's happening in America, on a per capita basis. According to daily numbers tracked by Worldometers.info, Germany has 1,285 confirmed coronavirus cases per one million population. The USA has 1,210 confirmed cases per million population, which is very similar on a per capita basis.
Germany has so far recorded 24 deaths per million people, while the USA has recorded 39 deaths per million. Those are also very close, considering that nations like Spain are reporting 300 deaths per million.
Furthermore, the level of hospital technology is very similar between Germany and the United States. Many German doctors, for example, are educated in U.S. medical schools, and vice-versa.
Thus, the Imperial College estimates for Germany are a good match for the United States, and that means the USA likely has experienced a similar infection penetration across its own population: 0.72%.
What's crucial to grasp from all this is that over 99% of Americans have not yet been infected with the coronavirus. Naturally, this means that if lockdowns are lifted without additional measures undertaken to halt a resurgence of new infections, the United States of America will suffer a second wave of coronavirus infections.
It also tells us a lot about the case fatality rate for coronavirus infections in the United States, given that we have fatality numbers to reference.
If we start with an estimated 0.72% of the US population infected with the coronavirus, that's about 2.35 million Americans who have been infected so far. With 13,000 deaths already recorded in the United States, that's a death rate which has already achieved over 0.55%, with many more deaths still to come due to the lag time (the case fatality rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1%). And according to recent NYT reporting which interviewed coroners across the country, the real number of deaths is almost certainly at least twice the officially reported numbers, which means the coronavirus has already killed over 1% of those it infected in the United States, making it at least ten times more deadly than the seasonal flu (but there's more, see below).
And that's the good news. If you want a more accurate look at where this is headed, out of over 400,000 confirmed infections in the United States, 366,000 of those are still "active" which means they aren't yet resolved. Only 21,700 have recovered so far, which isn't even twice the number who have died. Only 34,700 cases are so far resolved in the United States, and out of those resolved cases, nearly 13,000 have died. That's more than one third of the resolved cases. This means that so far, for every two people who resolve their infections without dying, one additional person dies.
Of course, if 2.35 million Americans are already infected, and only 400,000 cases are confirmed, that means nearly 2 million Americans are infected but not yet tested. Based on previous research we've all seen about asymptomatic carriers, over half of those people are surely asymptomatic carriers, which means there are probably slightly more than one million Americans walking around with no symptoms who would be spreading the coronavirus to others if not for the lockdowns which are forcing social distancing.
In other words, without the current lockdowns in place, America would have already had tens of millions of infections by now, which would have resulted in millions of deaths by July (just as our original pandemic projection models described). Thankfully, lockdowns began in mid-March, shutting down most of the replication opportunities for the virus.
All this also means that with 2.35 million Americans infected, a 1% case fatality rate would result in 23,500 fatalities. Yet there's now no question we're going to see at least twice that number of fatalities within the next 90 days or so, even if the lockdowns continue. And that means the real case fatality rate is almost certainly higher than 2%, making the coronavirus 20 times more deadly than the seasonal flu.
Our current projections put the expected deaths by the end of July at 45,000 - 90,000 Americans. A total of 1,970 Americans died just today, and that number is expected to keep climbing for the next week, after which it is expected to slowly decrease. Given that we're already at 13,000 deaths right now, with +2,000 new deaths per day added to the total, it's obviously impossible that this will stop at just 23,500 fatalities (which would be the 1% case fatality rate).
It's far more likely that we will see exceed 45,000 fatalities (around a 2% case fatality rate), and we might see 60,000 fatalities (around a 3% case fatality rate). If we hit 75,000 fatalities in the next 90 days or so, that would indicate a roughly 4% case fatality rate, which is 40 times higher than the seasonal flu.
It turns out that the pro-Trump talking heads and publishers who tried to argue that lockdowns weren't necessary were all using bad math. They had claimed two things which we now know are not true:
1) They claimed that the case fatality rate of the coronavirus was only 1 in 1,000 people (0.1%) or even as low as 1 in 10,000 people (0.01%).
2) They claimed the coronavirus had already infected the vast majority of the population, insisting that "herd immunity" had already been reached.
As it turns out, every one of the individuals making such claims was really bad at math and was pursuing a political agenda: The "Fox News" agenda of trying to downplay the severity of the virus in order to somehow avoid economic damage. (Yes, that strategy makes no sense, because if you simply ignored the virus, it would have killed at least two million Americans by July, which would have devastated the economy anyway.)
The important truths to recognize in all this are:
1) The lockdowns worked. They stopped the virus from spreading on an exponential basis, likely saving at least two million lives over the next 3-4 months.
2) The lockdowns cannot be ended without taking additional precautions to halt a resurgence in infections. I have outlined the four solutions that need to be put in place in this Natural News article.
3) There will likely be a second wave of coronavirus infections later this year. That's because less than 1% of the US population has been infected so far, and at least a third of those are in New York. Without extreme precautions to prevent new outbreaks, we will see a second wave starting to spread in August - October, and the 2020 / 2021 winter could prove especially devastating for new coronavirus outbreaks.
4) We are nowhere near herd immunity. Achieving herd immunity with a virus that exhibits this R0 value (of around 3.9, according to new Imperial College estimates), at least 80% of the entire US population would have to be infected first.
5) Achieving herd immunity (80% infection rate across the population) would likely require 5.2 million additional deaths. So anyone talking about ending the lockdowns to "achieve herd immunity" is actually saying, "Hey, let's kill 5.2 million people in the United States in order to save our stock portfolios."
That's why the people demanding the lockdowns be ended while simultaneously (and falsely) claiming we've already reached "herd immunity" are not just wrong; they're extremely dangerous to the millions of would-be victims who will die if such reckless plans are put into place.
The correct answer in all this is to end the lockdowns in a way that continues to protect public health and halt viral replication. That can only be achieved with masks, zinc, vitamin D and vitamin C, not through non-existent vaccines or potentially dangerous prescription drugs.
Nutrition can save America, in other words. But America is too corrupt and controlled by Big Pharma to recognize it, which means we're all sharing a nationwide suicide mission that's being guided by the vaccine industry to destroy our economy and enslave our people while censoring the nutritional cures that could solve all this right now. (Big Pharma influenced Big Tech to enforce all the bans, making sure the American people are never allowed to learn the truth about nutritional cures.)
If you question our own projections, by the way, check out this amazing video that tracks our podcasts and news stories from the very beginning of the coronavirus pandemic. You'll find that Natural News was the most accurate news source in the world, correctly warning about exactly what was coming:
Stay informed. Read NaturalNews.com.
Mike Adams (aka the "Health Ranger") is the founding editor of NaturalNews.com, a best selling author (#1 best selling science book on Amazon.com called "Food Forensics"), an environmental scientist, a patent holder for a cesium radioactive isotope elimination invention, a multiple award winner for outstanding journalism, a science news publisher and influential commentator on topics ranging from science and medicine to culture and politics.
Mike Adams also serves as the lab science director of an internationally accredited (ISO 17025) analytical laboratory known as CWC Labs. There, he was awarded a Certificate of Excellence for achieving extremely high accuracy in the analysis of toxic elements in unknown water samples using ICP-MS instrumentation.
In his laboratory research, Adams has made numerous food safety breakthroughs such as revealing rice protein products imported from Asia to be contaminated with toxic heavy metals like lead, cadmium and tungsten. Adams was the first food science researcher to document high levels of tungsten in superfoods. He also discovered over 11 ppm lead in imported mangosteen powder, and led an industry-wide voluntary agreement to limit heavy metals in rice protein products.
Adams has also helped defend the rights of home gardeners and protect the medical freedom rights of parents. Adams is widely recognized to have made a remarkable global impact on issues like GMOs, vaccines, nutrition therapies, human consciousness.