Some of the latest science into the outbreak reveals the number of people being infected by the Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19) is doubling every 2.4 days, with an R0 of between 4.7 and 6.6. If this is accurate, things are about to get a whole lot worse before they ever have the chance to get better.
A paper published in the journal medRxiv, which is associated with the British Medical Journal, suggests that quarantine and contract tracing alone "may not be effective" to fully contain the Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19), and that "early, strong control measures are needed."
What these early, strong control measures might entail isn't fully spelled out in this paper, though it does make mention of how the full closure of Wuhan changed the dynamics of other surrounding areas that have had to worry slightly less about the import of new cases.
Further, the paper estimates that the growth rate of the Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19) has decreased from 0.29 per day to about 0.14 per day since January 30. Based on the paper's calculations, this decreases the disease's R0 from an earlier range of between 4.7 to 6.6, to 2.3 to 3.0.
Again, these are merely estimates, and as we've seen in recent days, the numbers are constantly changing. But the point is that, even with the most draconian of containment measures, the infection rate is still alarmingly high and there's really no stopping this virus until it eventually runs its course.
Part of the problem is that the Wuhan coronavirus appears to be able to infect others even while still in incubation, meaning infected patients transmitting it to others aren't necessarily even showing symptoms themselves. Listen below as Mike Adams, the Health Ranger, discusses this on an episode of The Health Ranger Report. (Hear more daily podcasts at Brighteon.com/channel/hrreport )
Despite this estimated decrease in its R0, the Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19) is "still rapidly growing," according to the paper, and has spread to more than 20 different countries as of February 5. And how it will spread in these other countries in the coming days "remains to be seen."
In other words, just because the rate of growth appears to be slowing in Wuhan doesn't mean that the same is true everywhere else. Chances are there will be spikes in cases that begin to emerge well outside of China as the first few cases balloon into a few more cases, which in turn skyrocket, potentially.
Even with a lowered R0, of let's say 3.0, this still means that the Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19) will spread to three additional people for every one person it infects, which means exponential growth. Unless its R0 can be brought down to zero or below, the Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19) is only just getting started, so don't let your guard down quite yet.
The jury is also out as to how deadly the Wuhan coronavirus (CoVid-19) really is, with the official numbers not necessarily matching what's actually happening.
"If the value of R0 is as high in other countries, our results suggest that active and strong population-wide social distancing efforts, such as closing down transportation system(s), schools, discouraging travel, etc., might be needed to reduce the overall contacts to contain the spread of the virus," the paper concludes.
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