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Ebola outbreak to infect 20,000 people per month: NYT


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(NaturalNews) New data compiled by a cohort of research scientists working for the federal government suggest that the World Health Organization's (WHO) nine-month prediction total for Ebola infections will more than likely become the average monthly infection rate, based on current trends.

Researchers from the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute (VBI) at Virginia Tech say that as many as 20,000 people per month could become infected with Ebola and that the outbreak could take between 12 and 18 months to eventually fizzle out. WHO, on the other hand, has stated publicly that it hopes to contain the outbreak in just nine months, and that there would only be 20,000 infections total at that time.

"We hope we're wrong," stated Bryan Lewis, an epidemiologist from VBI who sees the outcome of the Ebola outbreak being much worse than the official figures.

Based on its now-exponential growth rate, which was recently admitted by WHO, the spread of Ebola is expected to pick up dramatically in the coming weeks, potentially infecting as many as 54,895 people by October 12. This is according to worst-case scenario figures compiled as part of a recent study.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has made similar admissions, with its director, Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, announcing on September 2 that the outbreak is "spiraling out of control." This particular outbreak is hitting larger cities worse than rural areas, making it especially threatening.

"There has been no indication of any downturn in the epidemic in the three countries that have widespread and intense transmission," added WHO, referring to the countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

With no plan in place to stop Ebola spread, final death toll could be catastrophic

WHO and CDC have both taken a conservative approach to the outbreak, assuming that it will die down on its own within a matter of months rather than years. But the only way this is actually possible is if massive efforts are undertaken now to contain it, which isn't the case.

Dr. Alessandro Vespignani, a professor of computational sciences at Northeastern University who helped compile the new data, says WHO's predictions are based on the false assumption that Ebola is being properly contained now. In reality, the reproduction rate of the disease is actually increasing, meaning that it is spreading at an increasingly faster rate.

"We don't know where the numbers are going," stated WHO emergency chief Bruce Aylward at a recent meeting in Geneva. A few weeks ago, the prospect of dealing with just 20,000 Ebola cases was considered insurmountable. But today, he says, that number seems minimal, as the escalating outbreak proves to be "unparalleled in modern times."

The Obama Administration, meanwhile, has promised to send over 3,000 U.S. troops to deal with the outbreak, even though they won't have a clue how to actually do this. The U.N. is also calling for about $1 billion in aid to prevent the collapse of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, the three countries in the worst shape.

"We are honestly at a loss as to how a single, private [non-governmental organization] is providing the bulk of isolation units and beds," added Medecins Sans Frontieres (Doctors Without Borders) President Joanne Liu, also at the meeting in Geneva. "Highly infectious people are forced to return home, only to infect others and continue the spread of this deadly virus."

Learn all these details and more at the FREE online Pandemic Preparedness course at www.BioDefense.com

Sources for this article include:

http://www.nytimes.com

http://www.theguardian.com

http://www.bbc.com

http://science.naturalnews.com
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