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Originally published January 25 2015

Shadow Stats tells the real story on unemployment, inflation and GDP

by J. D. Heyes

(NaturalNews) The government's latest jobs report which noted a decline in the unemployment rate, as well as additional economic data, was largely bogus -- filled with distortions, misrepresentations and, if not outright lies, then the next closest thing to it.

That's according to a pair of economic experts, one of whom served in that capacity during the Reagan Administration -- Paul Craig Roberts.

In a column penned after the early January release of December's job figures and the fourth quarter economic report, issued by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Roberts cited the other expert, John Williams, of the website Shadow Government Statistics, in which he reports on the latest of Uncle Sam's statistical discrepancies.

According to mainstream media reports, you may recall, the unemployment rate (supposedly) fell in December to 5.6 percent, the lowest it has been said to be since the beginning of the Great Recession in early 2008.

But Williams, in his subscription newsletter, noted that the real number is much, much higher.

"The government lies about everything"

"As increasingly has become the common circumstance, the upside revisions in headline monthly numbers simply are constructs of highly unstable, inconsistent and questionable seasonal adjustments being shifted between months," he wrote, as quoted by Roberts.

In reality, Williams noted, overall unemployment in December 2014 was far higher -- 23 percent, in fact -- when counting all potential workers, especially those who have become discouraged and have dropped out of the search for employment.

"More than anything else, though, what removes headline-unemployment reporting from broad underlying economic reality and common experience simply is definitional," he wrote. "To be counted among the headline unemployed (U.3), an individual has to have looked for work actively within the four weeks prior to the unemployment survey."

If the active search occurred at any time during the last year but not in the last four weeks, he explained, the person is then considered a "discouraged worker" by the BLS and therefore not counted in the U.3 measurement.

He describes that group as "short-term discouraged workers," as opposed to "long-term discouraged workers" -- those who have not found employment after one full year. Such non-reporting therefore skews the data, he said.

"The 23% unemployment rate is consistent with the declining Civilian Employment-Population Ratio and the declining Labor Force Participation Rate. The rise in discouraged workers is reflected in the decline in these ratios," Roberts observed, commenting on Williams' figures.

"Are you surprised that the government lies about the number of new jobs and the unemployment rate? Why are you surprised?" Roberts continued. "The government lies about everything--'Iraqi weapons of mass destruction,' 'Iranian nukes,' 'Assad's use of chemical weapons,' 'Russia's invasion of Ukraine,' etc."

Even the Census Bureau is falsifying data

Roberts further stated that Williams reported that the Birth/Death Model utilized by the BLS assumes that more jobs are created each month by new startups than are lost by companies going out of business. Therefore, per the government's statistics, the supposed excess of new startups over business closures adds an average of 61,000 jobs per month. "In other words," he writes, "these jobs are spun off of the assumptions of a model and are likely to be phantom jobs."

[Editor's note: Gallup recently reported, "for the first time in 35 years, American business deaths now outnumber business births," so the BLS Birth/Death Model is completely invalid.]

He also points out that a columnist for the New York Post, John Crudele, has reported that the issue of data falsification by the Census Bureau is under investigation by a congressional committee and is urging Americans to contact the new chairman of that committee, Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, to urge him to continue the as-yet-incomplete invesgitation:

Please take down this phone number: (801) 851-2500.

Today I'm going to ask you to take part in a bit of citizen activism. I am asking that you phone Congressman Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) and tell him not to stop probing the US Census Bureau.

You can read the remainder of Credule's column here:


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