The world awakens to the bird flu threat

The particular influenza strain being watched is the H5N1 bird flu virus. Should an outbreak occur, the total deaths expected around the world, according to the WHO, numbers in the tens of millions of people. Furthermore, the WHO says that the United States currently has no vaccine to distribute to the population that might offer protection from this flu epidemic.

In its own words, " ... the H5N1 strain has demonstrated its capacity to infect humans and cause severe disease, with high fatality, on three separate occasions beginning in 1997. The disease in humans has no vaccine to confer protection and no specific treatment once illness becomes severe."

Even with this clear threat to public safety, the United States currently has no ability to manufacture vaccines for the entire population in a timely manner (it would take until 2012 to make enough vaccine to cover everyone). Even if a vaccine theoretically existed, the U.S. doesn't have a system in place to distribute it to citizens (remember the Hurricane Katrina mess, and the government's attempts to distribute ice, food and water?).

"Vaccines and antiviral agents are unlikely to meet demand, even for industrialized countries able to purchase them," explains an investigative medical article entitled, The Next Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from Hong Kong, 1997 by Ren� Snacken, Alan P. Kendal, Lars R. Haaheim, and John M. Wood, published by the Centers for Disease Control, http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no2/snacken.htm. It goes on to explain, "Waiting until a pandemic strikes to determine access to [vaccines and medicines] inevitably contributes to inequities in supply for countries lacking facilities to produce antiviral agents or vaccines or lacking resources to competitively purchase supplies at a time of scarcity. The issue of equity cannot be resolved by individual governments or manufacturers."

We should have learned that lesson many times over, but still the vaccine problems persist. The winter of 2004 saw a complete breakdown in the U.S. vaccine infrastructure when the winter flu vaccine experienced a severe shortage because the vaccine manufacturer, Chiron, was found to be producing contaminated product. In the winter of 2005, a similar flu vaccine shortage was experienced in the U.K.

Both of these left the entire country without adequate flu vaccine, creating an instant shortage panic. Now, imagine what would happen if there were truly a global killer flu; an influenza virus that mutated and made the cross-species leap from birds to humans. Imagine that this virus is spreading around the world from city to city, being carried by travelers in airplanes, and then being spread from person to person in those cities through coughing, shaking hands, touching doorknobs or just from being in the same elevator with another person.

Now, imagine 30 percent of the United States� population becoming infected with this flu. The result would be nothing short of a national crisis. As the World Health Organization explains, "Vaccines, antiviral agents and antibiotics to treat secondary infections will be in short supply and will be unequally distributed. It will take several months before any vaccine becomes available." They also explain, in their own words, that:

• Medical facilities will be overwhelmed.
• Widespread illness may result in sudden and potentially significant shortages of personnel to provide essential community services.
• The effect of influenza on individual communities will be relatively prolonged when compared to other natural disasters, as it is expected that outbreaks will reoccur.

As Dr. James A. Wilde of the Department of Emergency Medicine at the Medical College of Georgia adds, "Even now there is little to no excess capacity to absorb more patients, but when pandemic flu arrives there will be a tidal wave of patients arriving in clinics and ERs nationwide. If it happens tomorrow, the system will collapse."

Incredibly, the WHO predictions about a bird flu pandemic may actually be the good news. A Russian scientist, Dr. Dmitry Lvov, head of the Ivanovsky Virology Institute, estimates that this particular strain of the flu is so aggressive and deadly that as many as one billion people around the world could die from it. He estimates that in the United States alone, we could be looking at 700,000 dead. Granted, his estimates seem ridiculously high, but this man is no stranger to infectious disease. In any case, it does give you an indication of the potential seriousness of this next global outbreak.

This article is excerpted from the book How to Beat the Bird Flu by Mike Adams. The full book can be purchased in downloadable or hardcopy editions at www.TruthPublishing.com.