Originally published February 8 2006
Study suggests fewer pollutants could mean increased global warming
by Mike Adams, the Health Ranger, NaturalNews Editor
A study conducted by British and American scientists has found evidence that suggests cleaner air may come with some drawbacks, namely increased global warming, as aerosols -- which can have a cooling effect on the atmosphere -- begin to dwindle in number.
The group has produced the most precise estimates yet of how tiny particles, known as aerosols, could affect the world's climate.
Aerosols, which include pollutants, have a cooling effect on the atmosphere, and the team's work suggests that the cooling effect is strong - nearly as strong as the top estimates of the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Thus, the dwindling presence of aerosols means that global average temperatures could rise faster than previously estimated and reach toward the high end of projections for the end of the century.
Those estimates currently range from 2.7 to 7.9 degrees F., depending on how emissions of greenhouse gases and other factors play out in coming years.
The results, published in the current edition of Nature, imply "future atmospheric warming greater than is presently predicted, as aerosol emissions continue to decline," suggests the team, led by Nicolas Bellouin at Britain's Meteorological Office in Exeter.
The IPCC has been trying to get a clear picture of aerosols' impact for at least 10 years, "but the results always come up very uncertain," says James Coakley, an atmospheric scientist at Oregon State University in Corvallis.
Much of what scientists understand about aerosols' effects on climate has come from computer models.
The new study, though, used data from the Terra and Aqua satellites of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, combined with ground-based and aircraft measurements.
For another, their size can help determine whether clouds are more effective at trapping heat or at reflecting sunlight back into space.
And black-carbon soot, which comes from burning fossil fuels inefficiently, can heat the surrounding air, drying it and suppressing cloud formation.
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