Originally published September 28 2005
Controversy over oil supply rises among experts
by Mike Adams, the Health Ranger, NaturalNews Editor
While oil production in the world will eventually peak, and supply dwindle, experts disagree on whether this will happen in the near future or several years from now, with some groups preparing for the worst.
Fact: World oil production will peak someday, and supplies will start running out.
The oil industry says crude will be plentiful for at least another generation.
But some experts argue reserves are overstated, oil technologies are limited and demand, sharply boosted by the needs of China and India, could soon outpace supply.
European Union finance ministers are asking the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to ramp up production when the Saudi-led cartel meets Sept. 19 in Vienna -- despite the failure of similar boosts over the past year and a half.
Once supply begins to dwindle, the years to follow will see shortages that at best will cause "global recession, possibly worse than the 1930s Great Depression," says Deffeyes.
"The world has never faced a problem like this," says a report prepared this year for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Technology Laboratory.
Although oil companies have searched intensively for new oil finds, "results have been disappointing," says the report, from Science Applications International, which focuses on security and energy concerns.
Still, oil companies and governments are betting -- at least in public -- that new discoveries and technology will keep the world supplied for at least the next generation.
In a speech six years ago, before he became U.S. vice president, Richard Cheney spoke of estimates of 2-percent annual growth in global oil demand and at best a 3-percent annual decline in production from existing reserves.
More worrisome are claims of inflated reporting by the Saudis, Iran and most other OPEC members whose national oil companies are not legally subject to audits and other controls.
OPEC nations deny padding their figures but even governments are becoming openly skeptical.
Energy expert Matthew Simmons says that except for Libya, Algeria and Nigeria, OPEC countries tripled their reserve numbers in the 1980s with no supporting data.
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