Originally published July 11 2005
Timeline on H5N1 bird flu pandemic
by Mike Adams, the Health Ranger, NaturalNews Editor
H5N1 was first detected in Asia in 1996 in a duck from Guangdong Province, which moved the pandemic to phase 2. The following year there were 18 human cases of H5N1 in Hong Kong, moving the epidemic into phase 3, defined by human infections. Phase 4 occurred when antibodies to H5N1 were found in health care workers. Phase 5: Outbreaks in birds in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Indonesia. We are hoping to ward off phase 6, marked by an increased rate of infection and mortality.
Since the 2005 flu pandemic is entering the final phase 6, a review of the H5N1 pandemic timeline is useful.
The H5N1 was similar to the 1996 goose isolate in H and N. The H had a poly-basic cleavage site and the N had a 19 amino acid deletion.
However, the new strain was a reassortant, with several internal genes that matched genes from H9N2 and H6N1 isolates.
These health care workers did not show signs of illness, indicating the virus could transmit to humans, but very inefficiently.
There were reported bird infections in China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia (as well as several additional countries in the area where no virus was isolated and sequenced).
The various isolates were similar to 2003, but had a 20 amino acid deletion in NA.
In 2004 the pandemic phase moved solidly into phase 4 with human-to-human transmission resulting in death.
There were several small familial clusters of 2-4 family members.
The southern cases had a case fatality rate approaching 100%, while the fatality rate in northern Vietnam fell to 10-20%.
A second version of H5N1 was found in southern Vietnam and Cambodia, where the case fatality rate was close to 100%, but clusters were smaller and less frequent.
The first outbreak was discovered in early May at Qinghai Lake Nature Reserve.
Initially the deaths were limited to 180 bar headed geese, but quickly rose to over 1000 dead birds representing at least 5 species of migratory birds.
The outbreak in Qinghai was followed by an outbreak of domestic geese in Tacheng near the Kazakhstan border in Xinjiang, China.
The two outbreaks in western China were accompanied by third party reports on infections in humans.
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