Originally published September 18 2014
Ebola outbreak to continue for another 18 months, warn scientists
by Ethan A. Huff, staff writer
(NaturalNews) The World Health Organization (WHO) may be vastly underestimating the final death toll from the West African Ebola outbreak, according to data compiled by scientists working on behalf of the federal government. The official prediction is another nine months and about 20,000 deaths by the time Ebola fully runs its course, but computer models generated by the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute (VBI) are anticipating a further 18-month spread and perhaps tens of thousands of additional deaths.
Based on the rate at which the virus is currently spreading, researchers from multiple universities say WHO's estimate of 20,000 deaths when all is said and done will likely come to pass within the next month, multiplying exponentially in the months following. Epidemiologists with many years' worth of experience agree that the official numbers are grossly understated and that things will get much worse before they get better.
"We hope we're wrong," stated Bryan Lewis, an epidemiologist at VBI.
Lewis and other researchers in his field have developed similar computer models for infectious diseases like influenza, which the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) falsely claims is associated with some 36,000 deaths annually. For Ebola, Lewis applied his expertise to come up with predictions for the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Department of Defense (DoD).
"Ebola has a simple trajectory because it's growing exponentially," added Dr. Jeffrey L. Shaman, an associated professor of environmental health sciences at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, who also helped with the research.
Governments to use Ebola outbreak to push experimental medicines, vaccines
Whether or not the severity of the threat is really this severe, one thing is for sure -- governments around the world, including the U.S. government, are gearing up to start pushing vaccines as the solution. Already, scientists are couching the threat in terms of how soon drug companies will be able to address it.
"The final death toll may be far higher than any of those estimates unless an effective vaccine or therapy becomes available on a large scale or many more hospital beds are supplied," wrote Lone Simonsen, a research professor of global health at George Washington University, in an email to The New York Times.
Simonsen was not involved in the latest modeling predictions, but her sentiments seem to be shared by the government and media. Whether or not the outbreak is really as threatening as these models predict, the whole Ebola crisis is escalating into a convenient opportunity for vaccine manufacturers to start pushing new vaccines as the cure.
"You have to understand that every promoted so-called 'pandemic' is an extended sales pitch for vaccines," wrote Jon Rappoport on his blog. "And not just a vaccine against the 'killer germ' of the moment. We're talking about a psyop to condition the population to vaccines in general."
Ebola could mutate to become more virulent
As far as the outbreak itself, researchers speculate that, if conditions remain as they currently are, total Ebola cases will jump to around 18,000 by October 12. If conditions worsen, which appears to be the case, that number could skyrocket to nearly 55,000. And in the slight chance that conditions improve, total Ebola cases will still reach nearly 8,000.
"The number of new cases is increasing exponentially," stated WHO, adding that in Liberia there is not even a single available bed to treat any more patients.
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Sources for this article include:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk
http://www.nytimes.com
http://www.cdc.gov
http://jonrappoport.wordpress.com
http://jonrappoport.wordpress.com
http://www.cnn.com
http://science.naturalnews.com
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