Future Uncertain For Anti-Spam Software Makers

Monday, November 03, 2003 by Mike Adams, the Health Ranger Editor of NaturalNews.com (See all articles...) Tags: anti-spam software, anti-spam technology, Microsoft

I would hate to be in the anti-spam software market right about now. There's tremendous uncertainty about this market in 2004 and beyond for two primary reasons. 1) Microsoft, and 2) The FTC.

MICROSOFT
Microsoft is building anti-spam features into their software products, both at the server level (Microsoft Exchange) and at the end user level (Microsoft Outlook). This is a positive step, and so far, the reports indicate that anti-spam technology has been cleverly implemented.

Accordingly, for a lot of people, the "default" anti-spam protection offered by upcoming Microsoft products may be deemed quite sufficient, and they will therefore not need to purchase third party anti-spam software.

THE FTC
Armed with federal anti-spam laws (effective or otherwise), the FTC will roll up its sleeves and get into the dirty business of tracking down and prosecuting spammers. It's a tough job, and I wonder if the FTC even has a sufficient budget to handle this at the scale that seems required, but let's look at the best case scenario for moment:

In the best case scenario, the FTC has sufficient resources to track spammers and shut them down. They hit hard and send a strong message: send spam and you'll either go to jail or wind up so flat broke that you'd wish you had federal prison's free meals benefit.

And let's assume that spammers get the message. Some can't stomach it and just quit the business. Others flee the country and start spamming from abroad. A third, defiant group stays in the U.S. and attempts to elude the FTC for as long as possible.

Finally, let's assume that the public education "Spam. Don't Buy It." campaign has a positive impact and end users actually stop buying products from spammers, causing a sudden drop in spammers' revenues (starving them out of business, so to speak).

Put all this together and there's no doubt that spam volume declines substantially. With this result, what will happen to sales of third-party anti-spam software? It seems natural to assume the sales would plummet, right along with spam. That's why I'd hate to be in the anti-spam software market right now: you're making money by selling a product that seems to have already peaked. When the problem is solved, your product isn't needed anymore.

(Interestingly, this is similar to the way the oil industry probably looks at the hydrogen economy and all the talk about fuel cell vehicles.)

Of course, I admit this is a best-case scenario. The reality is rarely this rosy. I'd love to see spam stomped out in a year or two, as I'm sure you would, but that's not likely to happen. My best guess, then, is that we'll see a slow decline in the anti-spam market, but third-party developers are going to be around for a while.

Analysis: The difficulties of fighting spam mean that third-party anti-spam software developers will continue to stay in business for years, although it seems likely that 2003 may have experienced peak demand for this line of products.